Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
